Churn: what it tells you, and what it doesn't

Monthly churn is the most-watched, worst-understood number in the industry.

Churn isn't uniform

It collapses as tenure grows. A first-month member leaves fifteen times more often than a second-year member. A blended rate lumps together two populations that have nothing in common.

Practical consequence: a fast-growing creator shows high churn because their base skews young, not because they're disappointing people. And a stagnant creator shows a flattering churn number.

The only number that matters

Twelve-month retention for a given cohort. It's the only metric that compares like with like, and the only one a decision can actually be built on.